Electoral Map for 7/30/20, including STE.
New Hampshire goes to Biden.
Not sure what happened, but I think I made a mistake tracking New Hampshire the last couple of maps, so this isn’t so much a real change as it is me correcting an error I made.
Previous map.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/07/29/electoral-map-for-7-29-20-including-ste/
So on the topic of sudden universal vote-by-mail changes. I wrote this in response to another post, but I’ll put here it here as well.
Generally speaking, while I’m not against vote-by-mail, as I’m also a registered absentee voter, this could be a big mess for many voters who aren’t already voting absentee, and don’t already have their ducks in order.
California law requires that your signature on file match the signature on the envelope. Where the signature on file does not match the signature on the envelope, the vote will be rejected. This happened to Rushna because she recently updated her driver’s license, and her signature had changed enough for her ballot to be rejected.
When voting in person, you verbally identify your name at the beginning off a list of names they have, which they then cross off, are handed a ballot, and vote. If any issues do arise, and you can’t confirm your identity, you go home, get documentation, and try again. It’s resolved before you cast your ballot.
For possibly many whose signature on file may be old or outdated at the office, but who haven’t encountered that problem before because they’ve always voted in person, this may be a potential problem.
If you’re going to vote by mail and previously haven’t, I recommend re-registering and providing a fresh signature on the voter registration to avoid having your ballot rejected.
So again, while I’m not against vote-by-mail, this may cause issues on a large enough scale to matter that regular voting or even prior absentee voting may not.
Some additional context.
Universal absentee voting may actually benefit Trump.
“Analysis: Absentee ballots — which Democrats are pushing — get rejected at a higher rate than in-person votes.”
COVID-19 US STRESS TEST – 2020-07-30
Previously I’ve focused a lot on International comparisons, but with there now being more known cases in the US than in most countries, I thought it’s worth looking at state by state comparisons.
Though cases are growing across the country, case fatality rates continue to be much higher in the Northeast (NY, NJ, CT, MA inc. MI) than in more recent leaders in cases (CA, TX, FL).
This explains why the entire country doesn’t take it equally seriously.
Finally, though I can’t conclude this with confidence from this data, given that warm southern states generally did better than cold northern states with respect to mortality, given that northern states dealt with their COVID-19 breakout in winter as opposed to summer, and given that it’s cheap and there’s little downside, I recommend all adults take 2000-4000 IU of Vitamin D3 daily.
Deaths per million population show a similar result, though here Michigan does better. Cases aren’t spreading as far in Michigan compared to NY, but you’re still similarly in trouble if you get it there.
Cases per million show different results. Many states have low deaths per million, but medium to high cases per million.
With respect to total cases, obviously NY, CA, TX, and FL, being the most populous states will have the most cases. They all have over 400k cases now (though NY’s CFR and mortality rate is much higher).
With respect to active cases, NY aside since they reached and resolved cases much earlier, though CA, TX, and FL all similarly reached 400k cases around the same time, TX is resolving their cases more quickly.
Tautological studies conclusively show people not at risk are not at risk. Genius.
Electoral Map for 7/29/20, including STE.
Pennsylvania goes to Trump.
Americans enjoyed the show federal riot control police put on in Portland. They may not like Trump, but they really don’t like their tax payer funded courthouses to be burned down.
Previous map.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/07/24/electoral-map-for-7-24-2020-including-ste/
Biden v. Trump, 7d moving average poll aggregate, normalized for STE.
Previous.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/07/24/biden-vs-trump-7-day-moving-average-poll-aggregate/
Lol, defund police means privatize police.
That’s why I agree, defund police.
After Ending Police Contract, Minneapolis Schools Quietly Post Job Listings for Security Guards
The public school district in Minneapolis, after cutting their ties with the city’s police in early June, has quietly sought to hire security guards.
