General Election 2020 : Biden v. Trump v. 3rd Party, including ADJ and STE + 14D MA for 8/10/2020.
I continued to tweak my election data model and this is what I ended up with.
First, one thing to note is that since national polls track the popular vote, and since the US has an electoral college system where a candidate may still win despite losing the popular vote, I decided to break out the popular vote (circles) from victory (stars).
Second, as was the case with 2016, it’s obvious that polls are only as good the data they collect. Aside from sampling errors, there is also something called the Bradley effect (referred to as the Shy Trump effect (STE) in the case of Trump), where a person being polled is unwilling to be honest in fear of reprisal, being shamed, ridiculed, ostracized, attacked, etc.
In 2020, with cancel culture in full swing, Trump supporters are much more likely to keep their mouths shut than in 2016, for reasons that should be obvious to everyone, so that must be factored in when making a determination.
Finally, irrespective of data adjustment, notice the trend lines. While Biden may be polling higher than Trump, Biden is polling lower than he was a year ago, while Trump is polling higher than he was a year ago, with three months remaining.
Though not exactly the same, previous.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/08/07/biden-v-trump-for-8-7-20-7d-ma-agg/
I also decided to make one for 2016 : Clinton v. Trump, because I clearly have too much time on my hands. Maybe I’ll also make the ones for 2008 and 2012 Obama when I get bored enough.