Republicans now lead in Arizona by 42K ballots. Trump won AZ with 91K in 2016.
Month: November 2020
Welcome back, scumbag. I’m honored that you pay me a visit on this special occasion.
Trump’s second term is when we’ll do the dictatorship and concentration camps.
One day your kids will ask if you voted Trump and you’ll say no I voted Dementia Joe.
Republicans lead in Florida by 8.9K ballots and in Arizona by 22K ballots.
Democrat lead in Florida down to 5,000 ballots. Panhandle is on central time.
Democrat lead in Florida down to 23.9K ballots.
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Let’s finish this
Let’s finish this.
Final Electoral Map, including STE and EVD.
I used a different map creator this time so I can get an additional shade to better distinguish between which states I believe to be further and closer to switching parties.
For the most part, it should be self-explanatory, but I want to highlight several states.
Nevada tilting right is a consequence of COVID shutdowns to the tourism and hospitality economy in Vegas. Republicans are up by +13.85% and Democrats are down by -10.70%. This is with the rural vote (which is expected to come in on election date) being down by -30.50%.
Minnesota had a large increase of non-partisan Independent voters, which caused both Democrat and Republican numbers to drop almost equally. These Independent voters are largely rural and suburban, and not at all urban. It’s the anti-riot vote that is angry about Minneapolis being burned down. This theory is supported by the Google search trends on “riots vs. protests” (see link below).
https://www.methylated.net/2020/10/31/on-the-topic-of-protests-or-riots-and-the/
Wisconsin had a drop in Democrat and urban voters (-18.63% and -32.24%) and a rise in rural voters (+26.63%) and looks most favorable to Trump after Pennsylvania. Brett Favre endorsing Trump also helps, and I doubt he’d do that if it didn’t play well in battleground Brown County, Wis, home of the Green Bay Packers.
Michigan is a mixed bag. My instincts tell me that Michigan may be closer than Minnesota this time, but as we’re all biased to believe that Minnesota will never go red, and since Michigan did go red last time, I put Minnesota as close as Michigan.
New Hampshire has a strong left libertarian culture. During the Bush years, there was a “Free State Project” which brought a lot of anti-Bush libertarians to the state.
I thought New Hampshire would go to Trump, and before the BLM protests, New Hampshire numbers looked favorable to Trump, but immediately after the BLM protests began, New Hampshire turned hard towards Biden and didn’t come back. If there is one battleground state which I believe BLM hurt Trump in, it’s New Hampshire.
Finally, here is the post on early voting data that I used to supplement this map.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/11/03/to-supplement-my-adjusted-polls-only-model-to-make/
Good luck, have fun, and long live God Emperor Trump.
😎
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