Month: November 2020

To supplement my adjusted polls only model to make a better determination, I’ve looked at the current mail-in and in-person early voting results for parties as well as non-partisanship broken down by urbanicity, across the battleground states as well California.

For the most part they do align with the polls, with a couple of exceptions. Arizona, while it’s certainly trending left on early voting, is still too far right to turn blue, and New Mexico, which is trending right on early voting, is still too far left to turn red.

Pennsylvania is an interesting case, because with the Democrat vote being up 42.43% and the urban vote being up 89.66%, it looks as though that’s slam dunk for Democrats. In fact what’s happening is that Republicans are boycotting early voting there because they believe it’s compromised by the Democrat machine, and intend to instead vote on election day.

New Hampshire didn’t have early voting data for 2016, so there’s nothing to compare it to. Polls suggests to me that this is the one state previously within Trump’s reach that was swayed left by the George Floyd protests.

Minnesota is where I believe we’ll see a right-leaning non-partisan suburban revenge for the riots.

“Take it to the suburbs” was never a smart chant.

Finally, including California, a severe left wing outlier where the urban vote is up 13.22% and the Republican vote is down -21.75%, allows everyone to see why Biden being up +10 points on a national poll doesn’t amount to an automatic victory.

Winning California (and other big left wing states), but losing battleground states is why Democrats won the House in 2018, but lost the Senate.

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To better understand the electoral history of the different battleground states (including California because I live there), and more specifically to gain better insight into the unprecedented “Blue Wave” of 2018 and what it means for 2020, I plotted the House, Presidential, and Gubernatorial election numbers into charts.

It confirmed my suspicion that, while the 2018 blue wave was absolutely an impressive accomplishment, and Democrats deserve every ounce of credit for that achievement, with the exception of Arizona, it did not surpass their 2016 numbers, and could have been offset, had Republicans not been infighting (MAGA vs. Establishment/RINOs), by a larger red wave.

Arizona is the one battleground state where the 2018 numbers exceeded their 2016 numbers, which is what put Arizona into play in 2020.

That isn’t to say that Republicans didn’t do well in 2018, as their numbers were also higher than previous off-year elections, but they just couldn’t compete with the Democrats, in large part due to the infighting, and with the infighting behind them, Republicans are expected to do well again.

Another thing worth noting is that, for whatever reason, the blue wave largely passed Florida and North Carolina by, as their waves were small by comparison.

Finally, with respect to California, I want to point out that in the 2018 gubernatorial race, John Cox, the Republican, outperformed the Republican House votes whereas Gavin Newsom, the Democrat, underperformed the Democrat house votes.

By comparison Hillary, Obama, Jerry Brown, and (especially) Arnold Schwarzenegger outperformed. The last California governor to underperform was Gray Davis, and he was recalled. This illustrates that Gavin Newsom is in fact not a popular governor, but simply won as a consequence of California being a one party Democrat state in an anti-Trump election.

Going forward, this doesn’t bode well for California as any well connected Democrat clown will automatically sail to victory unless faced with an extremely popular but unlikely Republican alternative like Arnold.

With the election coming up fast, I’ve decided to post this as well for anyone’s interest.

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Electoral Map for 11/02/20, including STE.

Michigan and Minnesota switch to Trump.

Quite a few new polls came out in the last day, so I didn’t take early voting into account yet.

Trump has been rallying hard in the rust belt, and late polls in Michigan moved towards Trump by a couple of points.

With respect to Minnesota, I’m apprehensive about giving this to Trump on polls alone, because I can’t tell if my model is failing for Minnesota or if everyone is just paranoid about Minnesota and under-polling Republicans there given that it hasn’t gone Republican since 1972. However, my numbers are what they are, so I’m giving it to Trump.

If I see more updated polls, I’ll post another poll based map, if not then the final map will take into account early voting data.

Previous map.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/10/30/electoral-map-for-10-30-20-including-ste/

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As expected, Teflon Don aka the comeback kid, is rallying back off his tax avoidance and coronavirus low. I would have liked him to rally stronger into pole position, but an uptrend has been established, and given that these are lagging indicators, I think this is good enough.

Since the election is tomorrow, this may be the last one of these that I post, so that’s that.

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Arizona flips on betting markets, Trump up on big volume.

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Trump rally in Miami, Florida.

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Early voting modeled data for Minnesota.

35% Republican, 36% Democrat, 29% non-partisan.

Minneapolis-Saint Paul is an island.

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