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Month: July 2021
Kandahar city ceasefire may not be happening after all, talks may have collapsed.
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Taliban captured Nijrab, Kapisa
Taliban captured Nijrab, Kapisa.
Kabul claims to be in control of it as well, but the Taliban have footage of the district center.
8 day ceasefire in Kandahar city for Eid, locally negotiated, not from Doha.
War in Afghanistan map for July 18, 2021.
Little changed during this time period. The government retook a few districts, and the Taliban took a few other districts. The big development this time is that the Taliban are taking police districts within Kandahar city after taking both Arghandab and Dand in Kandahar province.
I haven’t seen any updates for many of the engagements from weeks ago, so I decided to apportion them to either the Taliban or the Government based on who had the last claim, momentum in the area, what others who are following the conflict believe, and so forth.
As I said, the government made an effort and retook a few districts, and of course wasted no time to celebrate their victories, but that was more a result of the Taliban taking a break for Eid and pending results from Doha. Though the Taliban are not officially recognizing a ceasefire, with some exceptions, their level of effort dropped over the past week, and I’m afraid the government is taking that to mean that it’s doing much better. I’m not as convinced, but we’ll see.
Previous map.
https://www.methylated.net/2021/07/12/war-in-afghanistan-map-for-july-12-2021/
Taliban in Doha clarify there is no agreed upon ceasefire. Battlefield strength is the leverage they hold, and they want Kabul to accept that, which Kabul won’t. So, the ground game will continue until either Kabul forces the Taliban to lose that leverage or Kabul comes to terms with its reality.
To many it feels like a military process, but the competition for districts is still part of the political process. That said, it can easily become a military process, at which point everything really heats up, which is the real concern. Though it’s devastating to many, the current ground reality is still only lukewarm.