To supplement my adjusted polls only model to make a better determination, I’ve looked at the current mail-in and in-person early voting results for parties as well as non-partisanship broken down by urbanicity, across the battleground states as well California.
For the most part they do align with the polls, with a couple of exceptions. Arizona, while it’s certainly trending left on early voting, is still too far right to turn blue, and New Mexico, which is trending right on early voting, is still too far left to turn red.
Pennsylvania is an interesting case, because with the Democrat vote being up 42.43% and the urban vote being up 89.66%, it looks as though that’s slam dunk for Democrats. In fact what’s happening is that Republicans are boycotting early voting there because they believe it’s compromised by the Democrat machine, and intend to instead vote on election day.
New Hampshire didn’t have early voting data for 2016, so there’s nothing to compare it to. Polls suggests to me that this is the one state previously within Trump’s reach that was swayed left by the George Floyd protests.
Minnesota is where I believe we’ll see a right-leaning non-partisan suburban revenge for the riots.
“Take it to the suburbs” was never a smart chant.
Finally, including California, a severe left wing outlier where the urban vote is up 13.22% and the Republican vote is down -21.75%, allows everyone to see why Biden being up +10 points on a national poll doesn’t amount to an automatic victory.
Winning California (and other big left wing states), but losing battleground states is why Democrats won the House in 2018, but lost the Senate.