The last time there was a Senate race in Pennsylvania during a midterm in 2018, the Republican, Lou Barletta, picked up 42.6% in a contest of 5 million total votes. This time, in 2022, the Republican, Mehmet Oz, picked up 47.5% in a contest of 5.1 million votes.
Trump, in a presidential year, picked up 48.2% in 2016 against Hillary, and 48.8% against Biden in 2020.
All things considered, Oz at 47.5%, 4.9 points above Barletta at 42.6%, and only 0.7 points below Trump at 48.2%, actually did well, and might have won in a presidential year with Trump or if Mastriano wasn’t on the same ticket. Our expectations were just too high.
Pennsylvania is still out of consistent GOP reach.