The GOP is strong, and Trump is stronger, but they get crushed in the end game when the never-ending magic midnight ballots flood in, which are then followed up with weeks of post-election fixing or curing.
The GOP has a structural deficit when it comes to ballot harvesting and must overcome that deficit if it expects to win, but in order to do that it must get low-trust rural working class whites in rust belt swing states like Pennsylvania who aren’t reliable voters, who didn’t even turn out for Mastriano, to hand over their ballots to political operatives whom they neither like nor trust.
Trump, unlike the GOP and most of the other candidates, has goodwill among these rural working class whites in rust belt swing states. They trust him and support him, and I would wager would readily hand their ballots over to him were he to ask for them.
In the 2020 election, it was Trump driven turnout in a traditional election model against Democrat ballot harvesting efforts in the wake of BLM that led to Trump’s loss weeks after election day as the never-ending magic midnight ballots and the post-election fixing of ballots gave Biden the victory by virtue of power.
With election reform off the table, Trump’s traditional campaigning approach, which itself is formidable, now combined with a massive Trump-led operation to harvest ballots from rural working class whites in rust belt and other swing states, when done with intent, could overwhelm Democrat ballot harvesting operations.
If Trump expects to win, I expect mass ballot harvesting.